goldorak
Joined: Jan 23, 2003
Posts: 401
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They talk about SE in this news
http://neasia.nikkeibp.com/wcs/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/fw/243057
Color Camera Phones: A Boon to the Device Market
April 21, 2003 (TOKYO) -- Mobile phones equipped with a built-in camera are already the de facto standard in the Japanese domestic market. They are becoming increasingly sophisticated, too, progressing from still photography to video capability. The scene is now set for camera phones from Japan to penetrate markets in the United States, Europe, and the wider Asian region.
The growing popularity of camera phones will dramatically expand the device market, including displays, logic circuits, and memory chips. Research company EM Data Service Corp has published projections about the effects that camera phones will have on the device market.
Camera Phones to Make a Major Impact
As Japanese-made mobile phones equipped with cameras that support still-photo and video functions take off in the global market, the impact on device manufacturers will be enormous. According to 2002 estimates, worldwide shipments of camera phones are expected to total 396 million units, 10 times higher than the 39.2 million sold in the Japanese domestic market. The surge in demand will also push up the price of devices such as displays, logic circuits and memory, bringing a rapid expansion to the device market.
The impact is quite obvious if we compare device prices for the camera phone brands popular in Japan and device prices for the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) handsets used in the US, Europe, and Asia (see pie chart). For example, memory for Japanese camera phones costs 5,600 yen, seven times more than the mere 800 yen for GSM handsets overseas. The cost of displays is 1,400 yen for super-twist nemonic (STN) color liquid-crystal screens for GSM handsets, and 3,100 yen for color thin-film transistor (TFT) LCDs for camera phones. Logic circuit devices for baseband processing cost 3,400 yen for GSM handsets and 8,200 yen for camera phones. That is, displays and logic circuits cost more than twice as much for camera phones than for GSM handsets. In addition, camera phones are equipped with a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera costing 1,800 yen.
The widespread adoption of highly functional devices, such as camera phones, is likely to prompt a consumer urge to upgrade to a better product, thereby boosting replacement demand. In fact, in 2002, more than 50% of sales in Japan were due to consumers replacing old equipment, compared with an estimated 28.2% of sales in Western Europe.
Camera Production to Double by 2004
The popularity of camera phones in Japan is already starting to pay off for domestic device manufacturers. Manufacturers of CCD and CMOS camera modules, for example, can expect production to rise by leaps and bounds. For leading Japanese manufacturers such as Sanyo Electric Co, Ltd, Sharp Corp, Matsu****a Electric Industrial Co, Ltd, and Toshiba Corp, monthly production is forecast to double from an estimated 5 million units in early spring 2003 to around 10 million in the summer of 2004. This total includes components for digital cameras, digital video cameras and other such equipment, but camera phones are the main factor behind the increase in demand.
There are fears, however, that expanded demand could result in a faltering supply of components. Mass production of super-megapixel modules would be difficult for manufacturers currently supplying camera modules with a resolution of between 100,000 and 300,000 pixels. Shortages of ultra-high quality modules are likely to become even worse than at present.
Plastic lenses are one of the parts responsible for the shortage of camera modules. Plastic lenses can be made aspherical more readily than glass lenses, so fewer are required. Since a single plastic lens means lower costs, the demand for camera modules consisting of just one plastic lens has soared to about half of total demand. However, only a few manufacturers, such as Kanto Tatsumi Electronics Co, Ltd and Enplas Corp, are capable of mass-producing aspherical plastic lenses. Demand is not likely to slacken in the future either. As the pixel count reaches ever greater heights, some manufacturers will use a combination of two plastic lenses with one glass lens, but others will use three plastic lenses.
CCD Sensors to Overtake CMOS Sensors in Overseas Markets from 2004
The required specifications for the camera sensors incorporated in camera phones will change substantially. According to EM Data Service, cameras for mobile phones currently have from 100,000 to 300,000 pixels. But in the period from 2003 to 2004, the required resolution is expected to soar to between 1 and 1.3 megapixels. When the pixel count reaches 1.3 or 1.4 megapixels, however, the trend toward an ever-increasing number of pixels will very likely have run its course.
To date, two types of camera sensors -- Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) sensors and CCD sensors -- have competed for dominance. Hereafter, the more sensitive CCD sensors will become mainstream. All of the models in NTT DoCoMo Inc's 505i series, due for release beginning in April this year, will use CCD sensors. This is in response to consumers' high expectations in regard to picture quality.
In the domestic market, CCD sensors presently account for 80% of camera phone sales. Overseas, to keep costs down, CMOS sensors are used in most of the camera phones shipped to the Korean and European markets. In the global market, projections are that CCD sensors will account for 40%, and CMOS sensors 60%, of sales in 2003.
As regards the screen on the mobile phone, an increasing number will have poly-silicon displays. Poly-silicon is to be used in three of the six models in the 505i series. Camera phones with organic electroluminescent displays will very probably appear in 2003.
Nokia, Motorola Launch a Succession of New Models
Camera phones will take off rapidly overseas as they have in Japan. The reasons are twofold: Sales to overseas markets will become a core segment for Japanese manufacturers, and foreign manufacturers who dominate in the global market will focus on launching new camera-phone models.
The world's foremost vendor, Nokia Corp of Finland, released its 3650 basic model and the 7250 high-end model in the first quarter of 2003. Until now, Nokia's only camera phone was the 7650, a personal digital assistant (PDA) equipped with cell phone capabilities.
Motorola Inc, number two in the mobile market, released its A820 camera phone in the third quarter of 2002. Third-ranking Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd is believed to be working on a camera phone, although it has not yet announced commercial release. Fourth-ranking Siemens AG of Germany launched its u10 and S55 camera phones in the first quarter of 2003. Among domestic manufacturers launching models in the European market, Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Japan, Inc released its P800 and Panasonic Mobile Communications Co, Ltd released its GD87 in the third quarter of 2002.
Based on these moves among the leading manufacturers in the global market, EM Data Service believes that camera phones will occupy a steadily increasing percentage of mobile phone sales, reaching 30% by 2006. Until 2003, the domestic market was the primary outlet for Japanese-made camera phones. But from 2004, shipments to overseas markets including Europe and China will overtake domestic shipments.
With built-in camera functions now standard in mobile phones, color screens will become an increasingly common feature. In 2003, over 40% of mobile phones are expected to have color screens. By 2006, the percentage is forecast to reach 70%.
Graph: Cost of mobile phone components
(a) indicates a component cost for a mobile phone with an STN color LCD screen, the mainstay in Europe. (b) indicates a component cost for a camera phone on sale in Japan (NTT DoCoMo's 504iS series). Source: EM Data Service Corp.
Graph: Forecasts of camera phone shipments in the global market
The European and Asian markets will expand in 2003-2004. In 2004, overseas shipments will exceed domestic shipments. Source: EM Data Service Corp.
Related stories:
- Debate on 'CMOS vs. CCD' to be Settled with Tide Turning Toward CCD
- One Out of Four Mobile Phone Users Has Camera-Equipped Phone, Survey Says
(Shigeo Izumi, EM Data Service, Special to Nikkei Microdevices)
For information on Nikkei Microdevices magazine and subscription information, please visit Nikkei Microdevices Web site at http://ne.nikkeibp.co.jp/NMD/ (Japanese only).
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Posted: 2003-04-25 09:49
