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George W. Bush;s Resume (C.V) |
axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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From: Londinium
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Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
Monday August 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Today is the first Tracking Poll data based entirely upon interviews conducted after John Kerry's speech at the Democratic National Convention. The results reflect a one-point improvement for the Kerry/Edwards ticket. That's well within the survey margin of error and also reflects a two-point net decline from the poll results immediately prior to Kerry's speech.
One week ago today, the last Tracking Poll before the convention began showed Kerry and Bush tied at 46% each. Just before his speech, Kerry was leading 48% to 45%.
When comparing the convention "bounce" measured by various polling organizations, the timing of the polls must be taken into account. At Rasmussen Reports, we track the race daily while other organizations do so more sporadically.
If we compare the same polling nights as Gallup's pre-and post convention polls, Rasmussen Reports data shows that Kerry had a negative bounce of one-point during that time frame. Our data also shows a slight negative bounce over the time frame measured by Newsweek
Election 2004
Date Bush Kerry
Today 46 47
Aug 1 45 49
July 31 46 47
July 30 45 48
July 29 45 48
July 28 45 48
July 27 46 47
July 26 46 46
July 25 46 47
July 24 45 47
July 23 45 48
July 22 45 48
July 21 47 46
July 20 47 45
July 19 47 45
July 18 46 46
July 17 46 47
July 16 46 48
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axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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This is who i really think deserves to be president! 
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Sammy_boy
Joined: Mar 31, 2004
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He'd certainly do a better job that the current incumbant!
Really must get to see that film too, still haven't done it.
"All it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke
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axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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The current incumbant should be cleaning the whitehouse toilets. 
Farenheight 9/11 should be availble pretty soon on dvd...moore was saying quote: "I want to release the movie on dvd before the nov elections so that every household gets to see it"
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Sammy_boy
Joined: Mar 31, 2004
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Will keep an eye open for it if I dont' get to see it at the flicks. Keep meaning to see 'Bowling for Columbine' too, to make my own mind up about Moore.
Mind you, most reviews of '9/11' I've seen are excellent!
"All it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke
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axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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From: Londinium
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Farenheight 9/11 broke box office records for a documentary
It would have grossed even more if spiderman 2 had'nt been released around the same time.
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[ This Message was edited by: axxxr on 2004-08-03 19:45 ] |
Patrick-in-CA
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
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From: Sourhern Oregon, USA
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Patrick-in-CA
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So why did Bush, not Kerry, get the bounce?
By Susan Page, USA TODAY; Posted 8/2/2004 10:44 PM Updated 8/3/2004 12:10 AM
WASHINGTON — There was a bounce after last week's Democratic National Convention.
But it went to President Bush, not John Kerry.
Pollsters and strategists are puzzling over Kerry's failure to get a boost from a convention that even critics acknowledged went almost precisely as planned. Polls show it improved voters' impressions of Kerry as a strong leader and a potential commander in chief. It burnished views of the Democratic Party.
Still, in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, Kerry's support dipped 2 percentage points among likely voters compared with a poll taken the week before the convention. Bush's standing rose 5 percentage points. (Related story: Poll results )
Those changes aren't huge, and the survey has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points for the sample of 1,129 likely voters. But the direction they signal raises questions about a contest that continues to defy political assumptions.
Republicans were delighted. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd dubbed it an oxymoronic "negative bounce."
Democrats were dismissive. "We're extremely pleased with where John Kerry and John Edwards are," Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager, said Monday.
Two other post-convention polls released Monday also showed Kerry failing to get the traditional boost from the convention. One showed his support unchanged; the other had him up 3 percentage points among likely voters. Neither found Bush gaining ground.
Some of the same voices who confidently predicted at least a modest bounce for Kerry last week suggested theories for why that didn't happen: The Democrats miscalculated by limiting the partisan bashing of Bush. Or perhaps in this polarized electorate there's simply no one left to persuade. Or Kerry could still benefit from a delayed bounce.
Or it could reflect fallout of the terrorist threat in the first presidential election since the 9/11 attacks. Bush's resolute response has created a foundation for him that so far hasn't been shaken by concerns about the war in Iraq and the state of the economy.
The convention was followed in short order by new warnings about possible al-Qaeda attacks on financial institutions in Washington, New York and New Jersey.
Kelly DeMarco, 34, a homemaker from Darien, Conn., who was called in the poll, was impressed by what she saw on TV from the convention. "Kerry did very well," she says. "His daughters were excellent. I was really impressed with his family. I liked the points he made about how he would handle things in Iraq" and on education.
She sounds like a Kerry supporter. But she's backing Bush.
"I'm not sure he has enough fortitude to act when necessary," she says of Kerry. "I do believe that is an attribute Bush has over him."
Sea of tranquility
Since polling became a routine part of politics, the only other candidate who failed to see any improvement in his standing after the convention that nominated him was George McGovern in 1972.
That year, Democrats fought bitterly over credentials and the platform. Their convention in Miami Beach was so chaotic that the candidate didn't deliver his acceptance speech until well after midnight.
This time, the Democratic convention in Boston was a sea of tranquility. With an emphasis on Kerry's biography, particularly his service in Vietnam, the convention succeeded in improving his image on almost every front, the poll shows. He boosted his standing as a candidate who is optimistic, honest, trustworthy and caring.
The ingredients were carefully chosen, the recipe time-tested. So why didn't the cake rise?
Among the theories:
•There's no one left to persuade. More than three of four voters say they've given the election "quite a lot" of thought; nearly nine of 10 say their minds are firmly made up. Those are levels of interest and certainty that usually aren't seen until a week or two before the election. "People have their guns drawn," says Andrew Kohut, director of the non-partisan Pew Research Center. "There's a smaller swing vote."
Democrats already had consolidated behind the nominee, which typically happens at the convention. "Kerry got the traditional convention bounce," Democratic consultant Steve Murphy says. "He got it back in March, when he became the nominee."
•Republicans responded more than Democrats. After the convention, the number of Republicans who said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting spiked by 11 percentage points, to 62%. For Democrats the increase was 5 points, to 73%). Political observers couldn't remember another time when a convention excited more loyalists in the other party than in its own.
The fact that more Democrats are fired up at this point than Republicans isn't necessarily good news for Kerry. There's more maneuvering room for Republicans to gin up their base — and they still have their convention to do that.
•There wasn't enough red meat on the menu. The Kerry campaign tamped down direct criticism of Bush, fearing that harsh convention rhetoric would repel swing voters. One result: Kerry's ratings went up, but Bush's ratings didn't go down significantly.
Bush's approval rating fell just 1 percentage point, to 48%. The percentage who said Bush has the personality and leadership qualities needed to be president stayed the same at 55%. Those who said they agreed with Bush on the issues that matter to them stayed precisely the same.
"What they didn't really do was clear contrast" with Bush, says Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. "All the contrasts that were made were inferential. There wasn't anybody who said: 'Here's the problem. Here's what we're going to do differently.' " Some Democrats now will press Kerry to take a harder line.
Republicans already have made it clear they won't repeat the Democratic strategy. Criticism of Kerry, especially of his career in the Senate, is expected to be a major component of the Republican convention, though that approach carries its own risks.
•Bush fares better by comparison. Voters already knew a lot about Bush. After the convention, they also knew more about Kerry. Dowd says that makes it easier for them to decide to support Bush even if they see some flaws in him.
"They have a better reference point to compare Bush to," the Bush strategist says.
•Kerry failed to specify what he would do about Iraq. A 52% majority still says that Kerry doesn't have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, down only slightly from 56% before the convention. Just 38% say Kerry has a clear plan, compared with 42% for Bush. That makes it more difficult for Kerry to capitalize on the political vulnerabilities Bush faces stemming from the war.
In Boston, Democrats didn't blast the decision to invade Iraq, in part because Kerry voted to authorize the war. The percentage of voters who say it was a mistake to go to war actually dropped after the convention, to 47% compared with 50% before.
"He hasn't presented how he would do things differently," says Brooke Fox, 40, a natural resource policy consultant from Windsor, Colo., who was among those surveyed. "How is he going to persuade the international community to get on board? What he has said are platitudes."
•The poll is wrong. David Wade, Kerry's press secretary, calls the USA TODAY poll "an aberration." Because the results were a surprise, USA TODAY extended the survey an additional night, to Sunday, to create a larger and more reliable sample.
The survey showed that Kerry's best night — and Bush's worst — was on Friday, the day after Kerry's well-received speech to the convention. Kerry's support among registered voters was 49%, Bush 48%. But Kerry dipped to 44% on Saturday; he was at 46% on Sunday. Bush's support rose to 54% on Saturday, 53% on Sunday.
Two other post-convention surveys were released on Monday.
A CBS News poll taken Thursday through Sunday showed no convention bounce for Kerry. His support stayed at 49%, the same as before the convention. Bush went down 1 point, to 43%.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed Kerry with what they characterized as a "a tepid bump." He gained 4 points among registered voters, 3 points among likely voters. Bush lost 4 points among registered voters, 1 point among likely voters.
•The bounce will come later. Some analysts suggest that the convention laid the foundation for Kerry to gain ground later. "On national-security issues, Iraq, values — there was substantial movement for us," says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster. "Honestly, that was what we were trying to get out of the convention."
Voters who now see Kerry as a stronger, more appealing leader may be easier to win over as the campaign continues.
Cahill says the feeling by a majority of voters that the country has gotten off on the "wrong track" should be seen as problematic for Bush.
"I think he did great at the convention," Charles Wassler, 87, a retired construction worker from Barefoot Bay, Florida, says of Kerry. He liked what Kerry had to say about the economy, health care and Iraq. "He has more experience and will build a coalition to get all the countries fighting terror. That's not what's happening now."
Another Bush bounce?
Kerry dismisses the polls.
"None of that means anything right now," he said Monday in an interview on CNN. "All of these polls are so wacky because, frankly, they don't know what the political dynamic is this year. That's number one. Number two, I don't pay attention to polls. If I paid attention to polls, I would have stopped getting up in the morning last December," when his campaign seemed to be on its last legs.
But analysts see the "bounce" as important because the political conventions are the clearest shot a candidate gets during a campaign to make his case to voters. In a prepared speech, before a cheering audience, he can explain who he is and what he would do as president. In the past three decades, convention bounces have ranged from 3 points to 16.
Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted before the convention that Kerry would jump to a lead of 8 to 12 percentage points afterwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who chaired the convention, forecast a bounce of 5 points.
Now the question becomes: Will Bush get a bounce at the Republican National Convention?
That depends in part on why Kerry failed to get one now. If it was a result of Democratic miscalculations — the decision not to bash Bush, the failure to outline specific plans in Iraq — then Bush may fare better. For the record, Dowd, chief strategist of Bush's campaign, predicts he will get a boost.
If it's because voters no longer use conventions to make up their minds, then Bush may have the same fate.
Check back in five weeks.
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Patrick-in-CA
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
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From: Sourhern Oregon, USA
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On 2004-08-03 19:55:03, axxxr wrote:
This is who i really think deserves to be president!
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Oh yes. I can see it now. You criticize Bush for being stupid and now you want to replace him with the man who analogized the administration flying Bin-Laden family members out of the US to Clinton flying members of Timothy McVey's family out of the country!
At least Kerry has a brain!
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axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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From: Londinium
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Oh yes. I can see it now. You criticize Bush for being stupid and now you want to replace him with the man who analogized the administration flying Bin-Laden family members out of the US to Clinton flying members of Timothy McVey's family out of the country!
At least Kerry has a brain!
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HELLOOO Patrick!!....it was meant to be a joke!!
Well i'm glad you agree with me now that Kerry has more of brain that dumbass bush.
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axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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From: Londinium
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'Newshound' watches reports on Fox network'
Melanie Killinger-Vowell's schedule centers around Fox News. She hasn't missed a minute of "Day Side With Linda Vester" this year.
She'd qualify for Fox's biggest fan if she didn't hate it so much.
The 52-year-old Boulder woman is one of eight self-proclaimed "Newshounds" — liberal, middle-aged women scattered across the country who watch Fox solely to critique it.
Two Saabs dressed in anti-Bush stickers sit outside Killinger-Vowell's house. As if that weren't enough, a handwritten anti-Bush sign hangs from one rear window. A peace-sign flag marks her house in southwest Boulder.
Inside, Monday through Friday at 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., Killinger-Vowell poises on her couch, armed with a pen and paper to note each time she thinks the cable channel spins the news to the right. Sometimes she barely finishes one point before she starts another.
Her criticisms file into an already heaving e-mail inbox — thousands of ways she and the other newshounds say Fox is anything but "fair and balanced," the network's motto. The entries furnish a Web site started last month, after the newshounds wrapped up work on the documentary "Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism."
"Outfoxed," backed by liberal political groups, accuses the Fox News Channel of pushing a Republican agenda.
The Newshounds volunteered to monitor the channel February through April for a then-unspecified project involving Hollywood producer-director Robert Greenwald.
"The producers were really secretive," Killinger-Vowell said from her airy kitchen Thursday before her 11 a.m. show. She leaned forward, apparently eager to tell of her part in the mystery.
Co-producer Kate McArdle said they kept quiet about the project because they were afraid Fox would try to sue or shut it down. Instead of asking Fox for the needed clips, they recorded the programs off TV. They later edited footage together to support their argument.
"We weren't going from the premise that Fox was unbiased. We approached it from the point of view their slogan 'Fair and Balanced' was fraudulent," McArdle said.
Fox spokespeople called the documentary itself biased. In a written statement, Fox said "Outfoxed" used its material "out of context for partisan reasons." Fox's spokesman would not answer additional questions.
Killinger-Vowell said the work is "emotionally exhausting," but she doesn't want to stop. She says she's not an activist — maybe by other cities' standards, but not in Boulder. Still, she doesn't want to be idle; the media's influence on politics sometimes keeps her up at night.
"I hope viewers start to insist Fox and all media outlets provide more information than facts and opinion," Killinger-Vowell said. "They should be aware of how much media coverage subliminally steers the direction of this country."
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Patrick-in-CA
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
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From: Sourhern Oregon, USA
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On 2004-08-04 01:01:14, axxxr wrote:
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Oh yes. I can see it now. You criticize Bush for being stupid and now you want to replace him with the man who analogized the administration flying Bin-Laden family members out of the US to Clinton flying members of Timothy McVey's family out of the country!
At least Kerry has a brain!
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HELLOOO Patrick!!....it was meant to be a joke!!
Well i'm glad you agree with me now that Kerry has more of brain that dumbass bush.
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Well, he is better spoken than Bush. Curious though, how did you come to your conclusion? Some kind of new thought process? Please elaborate.
Thanks for taking the time to read my post. |
axxxr
Joined: Mar 21, 2003
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From: Londinium
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Well, he is better spoken than Bush. Curious though, how did you come to your conclusion? Some kind of new thought process? Please elaborate.
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I think you missed the ...The G.Bush soundboad!
HERE
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Patrick-in-CA
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
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From: Sourhern Oregon, USA
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On 2004-08-04 13:50:36, axxxr wrote:
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Well, he is better spoken than Bush. Curious though, how did you come to your conclusion? Some kind of new thought process? Please elaborate.
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I think you missed the ...The G.Bush soundboad!
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I didn't miss it... it was boring. I mean... I know he says stupid things. Makes me wonder why they had to edit his voice for the "soundboard". But maybe you're amused. That's good enough for me. Personally I was much more entertained by the non-partisan and highly intelligent parody at JibJab.com.
So, what other qualifications for President does Michael Moore posses (besides not being Bush)? Why do you think he would make a good President?
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Patrick-in-CA
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
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From: Sourhern Oregon, USA
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AP: Kerry Favors Bin Laden Trial in U.S.
By RON FOURNIER and NEDRA PICKLER Associated Press Writers
NEWBURGH, N.Y. (AP) - John Kerry said Friday he would put Osama bin Laden on trial in U.S. courts rather than an international tribunal to ensure the "fastest, surest route" to a murder conviction if the terrorist mastermind is captured while he is president.
"I want him tried for murder in New York City, and in Virginia and in Pennsylvania," where planes hijacked by al-Qaida operatives crashed Sept. 11, 2001, Kerry said in his first interview as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., speaks during an interview with The Associated Press at a Wendy's Restaurant in Newburgh, N.Y. Friday, July 30, 2004. In the interview, his first as the Democratic presidential nominee, Kerry said he would put Osama bin Laden on trial in U.S. courts rather than an international tribunal to ensure the "fastest, surest route" to a murder conviction if the terrorist mastermind is captured while he is president. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
The Saudi-bred terrorist is suspected of plotting attacks that have shed blood across the globe, not just in the United States. Kerry suggested he would place the highest priority on avenging American deaths.
He called the Bush administration's attempt to create a Muslim security force in Iraq an overdue act of desperation. "Great idea," he said. "Should have been done from the very beginning."
Kerry, fielding questions about foreign policy, presidential politics, abortion and the death penalty during a 12-minute interview with The Associated Press in this GOP-leaning Hudson Valley community, took Bush and his Republican allies head-on.
"They don't have a record to run on so all they can do is attack," Kerry said. He was responding to Bush, who a few minutes earlier had said from the campaign trail that Kerry had no significant achievements in Congress.
Word of the criticism drew a chuckle from the fourth-term senator, who wore an open-collar shirt and slacks. "That's the response to a positive campaign," he said sarcastically.
The night before, in his hometown of Boston, Kerry accepted the Democratic nomination at a convention scripted to project a positive, upbeat image to independent voters. The Democratic National Committee launched a one-week, $6 million ad campaign that features images of the convention, and party officials expect the DNC ads to turn negative this summer.
Noting that federal law limits his influence over DNC ads, Kerry didn't rule out airing his own ads critical of the White House. "I'm going to certainly reserve the right to respond to these people if they continually hack away," he said.
On the Muslim force initiative pushed by Saudi Arabia, Kerry said "Why is that being done as an act of desperation today rather than two years ago before a lot of lives were lost?" He said it was yet another lost opportunity to build a coalition that would help ease the U.S. burden in money and lives.
"A change in the presidency is essential to our ability to restore our respect" in the world, Kerry said.
Replied Bush spokesman Steve Schmidt: "John Kerry's decision to characterize progress in the war on terror as an act of desperation is his latest attempt to inject politics and opportunism into a subject that should unite Americans."
Kerry has long been an opponent of the death penalty, but in recent years has made an exception for terrorism. The former prosecutor said crimes like rape and child murder do not warrant the highest punishment.
"It's certainly terrorizing to the person who's undergoing it. I understand that," Kerry said. "But terrorism is a political act to terrorize a nation, to try to challenge a way of life and a standard.. It's just a different act."
He said bin Laden deserves to die.
"I would go the fastest, surest route of conviction, and in my belief that would be a trial for murder in the United States," the Democrat said when asked if he would seek to try bin Laden at The Hague.
Stepping gingerly into another social issue, Kerry reiterated that he believes that life begins at conception - and that a woman has the right to choose whether to abort.
Asked whether he believes abortion is taking a life, Kerry said a fetus is a "form of life."
"The Bible itself - I mean, everything talks about different layers of development. That's what Roe v Wade does. It talks about viability. It's the law of the land." The Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v Wade ruling legalized abortion in America.
"I don't believe personally that it's the government's job to step in and take my article of faith and transfer it to somebody who doesn't share that article of faith," said Kerry, a Roman Catholic.
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Posted: 2004-08-03 17:34
