| Author |
Time to say goodbye to PDAs? |
mib1800
Joined: Mar 18, 2004
Posts: > 500
PM |
@methylated_spirit
that's your guess that people just want basic phone feature. in esato i think many would disagree with your statement.
include also the 20+ million people who are buying smartphones and 200 million who will be buying a imaging/multimedia phone.
|
|
|
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@mib1800
I think methylated_spirit's point, please correct me if I am wrong, was similar to my own point; most customers simply do not want a 'complicated' mobile phone. Cameras, videos, music, etc may be all very well, and most people rather like these sort of features, but unique smartphone capabilities are something most users are not interested in. There are more than a billion GSM users around the world, most of whom use 'basic' handsets ie. non-smartphones.
_________________
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC
[ This Message was edited by: scotsboyuk on 2004-09-28 23:52 ] |
mib1800
Joined: Mar 18, 2004
Posts: > 500
PM |
@scotsboyuk.
i don't agree with your view that smartphone is "complicated" whereas other phones are not.
look at the K700 and S700. they are as complicated to operate as any smartphone. the only different is a smartphone can install additional functionalities. if a "normal" person can operate a K700/S700, they would hv no problems with a smartphone.
|
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@mib1800
I disagree; you are failing to take into consideration avery important point, that most customers are inherently interested in mobiles that will do as much as possible for the absolute minimum of fuss and effort.
The K700 and S700 are not smartphones, they may be advanced mobiles, but they do not have the functionality of smartphones. The average man in the street has probably never searched the internet for a filemanager application for a smartphone, nor is it likely that he has installed such a piece of software on a smartphone. I do agree that smartphone sales will increase and that more people will use them, but if we are being realistic we must realise that they are neve rgoing to be something taken up by the majority of mobile phones users.
Computers are easier than ever to use and yet there are vast swathes of humanity that will not go near one unless they absolutely have to, despite the fact that computers are more important than ever. I believe this situation to be true of smartphones too, the features that most people would like to see included on their mobile phones do not extend to smartphone functionality, especially when we take a more long term view.
The average mobile phone user would no doubt like to see a music player, a video player, radio, games, etc on his mobile in addition to the basic abilities of a mobile. What the average user does not want is a device that comes with a novel for an instruction book. I really do believe that the smartphone market will split along two lines; a high-end business market with advanced features and greater functionality and user customisation potential and a 'dumbed down' smartphone market aimed at providing advanced features to the avergae customer in a more simplistic way, sacraficing the customisation poential in the process.
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC |
mib1800
Joined: Mar 18, 2004
Posts: > 500
PM |
@scotsbyuk:
I agree with you 60% on your assessment. i.e. 60% of people who buy a phone fit your scenario. the other 40% can be easily "converted" if the smartphone trend is continues. these 40% is huge lot of people.
I'm not too sure about se P900, but for series 60, it already comes with a whole lot of basic functions such as file/apps/gallery manager built into the OS.
wrt to getting new apps into the phone, it is not difficult at the moment. you can use ota for installation. In the future, it may be as easy as downloading a ringtone.
but the greatest potential is when the operators jump on the bandwagon to add on their apps to provide new services (e.g. 3G type). at the moment, the operators cannot do much customisation with non-smartphone.
|
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@mib1800
Although making it easier for the average customer to download and install applications would no doubt increase sales, it isn't the only issue with the potential to hold back the spread of smartphones. There is also the point that most people have no real use for a smartphone; I have a feeling marketing will play a large part in trying to convince people that they need a smartphone, whether such campaigns awill be successful or not is an interesting point of debate.
I would have to disagree with your assesment that approximately 40% of all mobile phone users will want to use a smartphone, I think this is a gross over-estimation I would have thought that a figure of around 15% - 20% of customers may be intereste din using a smartphone, whether they will or not is anothe rmatter entirely. One has to remember that most of the world's GSM users are not wealthy people, many of them living in poorer areas of the world; smartphones are unlikely to be at the top of their list of priorities. My point about the actual need for smartphones ties in here too, poorer GSM users are very unlikely to need a smartphone.
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC |
asfaq
Joined: Sep 10, 2004
Posts: 41
From: Mumbai, India
PM, WWW
|
I totally agree with masseur.. Look whats happening in Japan and am sure that Palm or any of the PDA manufacturing companies are not doing very well anymore there.. Its just inevitable.. A classic example of this point is to look at how the walkman and radio have converged over the years..
This message was posted from a Nokia
[ This Message was edited by: asfaq on 2004-09-29 07:16 ] |
Oco
Joined: Dec 16, 2002
Posts: > 500
From: Lima, Peru
PM |
Because size matter...
|
mib1800
Joined: Mar 18, 2004
Posts: > 500
PM |
@scotsboyuk
i really understand your view that many do not hv the use of smartphone. on the rational basis, it truly make sense.
but human buying habits sometimes are really not rational. there is always the "herd instinct" or the "more for the same price mentality".
for example, leaving out preferences for a brand or design, would someone go for a S700 or the Nk6630 if the price are similar. To me, the answer is quite obvious.
on your point of affordability, i think u probably that the price of Nk6600 is now cheaper than a K700. so slowly, u will see smartphone permeating to the mid/lower end market. i think nokia has the intention of doing that with series 60.
[ This Message was edited by: mib1800 on 2004-09-29 07:57 ] |
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@mib1800
You make a valid point old boy, but I would have to say that the 'buying like lemmings' analogy can only be taken so far. Not everyone rushes out to buy a PC because it will allow them to do more than a piece of paper and a pen. It doesn't matter how cheap something is, if people don't need it, or don't think they need it to be more accurate, then they won't buy it.
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC |
masseur
Joined: Jan 03, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Sydney, London
PM |
I'd like to go back to the original posters question and suggest that we do not need to say goodbye to PDA with phones or to phones with PDA but say hello to the convergent technology that will eventually bring them so close together that they will actually be the same thing and there will be no need to make a choice
|
mib1800
Joined: Mar 18, 2004
Posts: > 500
PM |
@scotsboyuk
a lot of people upgrade their phones regularly. so the next time round these people will exercise their "buying like lemmings" (to quote u - i'm not familiar with this phrase) |
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@masseur
I said something along those lines earlier in the thread.
@mib1800
I'm not surprised you aren't familiar with that phrase since I just made it up! 
I still think that the majority of consumers will avoid dedicated smartphones, opting instead for mobiles with more advanced features, but, which are simpler to operate than smartphones.
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC |
masseur
Joined: Jan 03, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Sydney, London
PM |
Quote:
|
On 2004-09-29 09:12:41, scotsboyuk wrote:
@masseur
I said something along those lines earlier in the thread.
|
|
then we agree 
for now though I prefer the separate devices and indeed my new iPAQ with VGA screen is arriving tomorrow!
|
scotsboyuk
Joined: Jun 02, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: UK
PM, WWW
|
@masseur
Someone will be at the front door early tomorrow, waiting for the postman to arrive!
"I may be drunk my dear woman, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly." WSC |
|
|
Posted: 2004-09-28 11:24
