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Does anyone actually believe in man made warming, and why? |
Brightspark
Joined: Aug 19, 2007
Posts: 326
From: UK
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On 2009-06-05 21:43:42, michka wrote:
That the temp is not rising anymore. It is still rising, slowly but not slowlier than for the past decades, and we can see it by various means like ice melting, very large migrations of several animal species to colder waters and colder land, the increase in the number and intensity of the cyclones, the drop in productivity for the farmer in the center of the US combined with an increase of productivity in Siberia, etc. and of course temp measurements.
Sorry man, but I now have to go out, so see you later. 
it's not rising. the models said that there would be rapid warming this decade, yet there has been no large volcanic eruptions and it's been cooling in the last decade. the oceans have also been cooling since 2003. see:
http://climatesci.org/2009/05[....]st-weblog-by-william-dipuccio/
you can see the satellite trends here that clearly show that it's been cooling in recent years:
http://rankexploits.com/musin[....]n-to-uah-april-value/#comments
ice is not melting globally. see here:
http://www.meteorologynews.co[....]009/01/globalseaicehistory.jpg
studies claiming that bad weather increases with warming are false:
[ This Message was edited by: Brightspark on 2009-06-05 21:11 ] |
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goldenface
Joined: Dec 17, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Liverpool City Centre
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I think its safe to assume the warmer weather will bring with it more hurricanes, typhoons etc. As these only happen in warmer climates.
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Brightspark
Joined: Aug 19, 2007
Posts: 326
From: UK
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On 2009-06-05 22:20:33, goldenface wrote:
I think its safe to assume the warmer weather will bring with it more hurricanes, typhoons etc. As these only happen in warmer climates.
false. read this.
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Emanuel_etal_2008.pdf
kerry emanual is one of the experts on hurricanes, and he concludes:
"A new technique for deriving hurricane climatologies from global data, applied to climate models, indicates that global warming should reduce the global frequency of hurricanes, though their intensity may increase in some locations."
[ This Message was edited by: Brightspark on 2009-06-05 21:47 ] |
Bonovox
Joined: Apr 13, 2008
Posts: > 500
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Strangely in the UK I used to see more fierce storms when I was little back in the kate 70s and 80s. Not seen much that bad storm wise since then especially thunder storms. With our weather changing in the UK from time to time the jet stream changes direction. I was 4 years old during the drought of 1976. Since then we have not had many summers like that except a couple of short heat waves in 2003 and 2006. Nothing has changed that much in my experience. Past few 2 years or so since the heatwave of 2006 we seen so much rain here.
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goldenface
Joined: Dec 17, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Liverpool City Centre
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I hope they're right then. The 23 billions tonnes of CO2 we have been pumping out every year for the best part of a century is bound to have no effect. What about the huge increase in breathing problems, asthma etc. Isn't that good enough reason to find alternative energy sources?
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Bonovox
Joined: Apr 13, 2008
Posts: > 500
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Never believe anything a so called expert tells you
Phone?? What phone?? |
arien617
Joined: Feb 01, 2006
Posts: > 500
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The fact that none of us are scientists that have access to conclusive data is a good enough reason to stop the bickering.
Global warming cannot be "proven". However, fossil fuels running out can, and have.
The drive for alternative fuels should not arise from lowering CO2 emissions, it should be due to our sole source of energy being finite. There will be a time when supply will not meet demand, and that's the real problem.
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michka
Joined: May 17, 2004
Posts: > 500
From: Brussels-Belgium
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On 2009-06-05 22:03:59, Brightspark wrote:
On 2009-06-05 21:43:42, michka wrote:
That the temp is not rising anymore. It is still rising, slowly but not slowlier than for the past decades, and we can see it by various means like ice melting, very large migrations of several animal species to colder waters and colder land, the increase in the number and intensity of the cyclones, the drop in productivity for the farmer in the center of the US combined with an increase of productivity in Siberia, etc. and of course temp measurements.
Sorry man, but I now have to go out, so see you later.
it's not rising. the models said that there would be rapid warming this decade, yet there has been no large volcanic eruptions and it's been cooling in the last decade. the oceans have also been cooling since 2003. see:
http://climatesci.org/2009/05[....]st-weblog-by-william-dipuccio/
you can see the satellite trends here that clearly show that it's been cooling in recent years:
http://rankexploits.com/musin[....]n-to-uah-april-value/#comments
ice is not melting globally. see here:
http://www.meteorologynews.co[....]009/01/globalseaicehistory.jpg
studies claiming that bad weather increases with warming are false:
[ This Message was edited by: Brightspark on 2009-06-05 21:11 ]
First link: The fact that heat accumulation in the oceans is not increasing does in no way mean that global warming is not increasing. There is an equilibrium between all land, sea and atmosphere. And increasing global temperature changes that equilibrium between the different phases. As an example, global warming of the lower atmosphere (the one we live in) is accompanied by a global cooling of the upper atmosphere, because the heat is reflected back to earth.
Second link: Look at the spreading of the points in Fig 1. How can anyone serious in statistics draw a trend line with so few points that the spread is smaller in the x direction than in the y direction, and infer that anything is going down or up? That's utter stupidity or dishonesty. Why not choose only two points that would even better demonstrate your view? The rest is only commentaries from people not knowing what they are talking about.
Third link: The fact that the ice area is going down with time implies for you that the ice is not melting? Strange, to say the least. Moreover, sea ice is not the only ice on earth. And we all (well maybe except you) know that glaciers are disappearing all over the world, that the north pole polar cap has lost about 60% of it's mass and that the icebergs are leaving the polar areas about 6 months earlier than 50 years ago. So much that the ships can now go a straighter route from Europe to Americas during summer (they don't have to go so far south), because the sea is free from ice.
Oh, three additional things:
1) It is not because one instrument onboard a satellite shows something that it is true. You also have to compare with many other instruments both satellite born and groundbased, because instruments onboard can have all sorts of failures which obviously cannot be corrected.
2) Look at the figures, the number and intensity of cyclones has really come up quite dramatically during the last decades.
3) Go and tell the people from the very low altitude islands or countries that the sea level has not risen recently. Rising due to ice melting of course.
You should far more rely on actual facts than on graphs that are either misinterpreted or grossly modified (not by you of course) to fit your thinking. Actual measurements and graphs plotting only serve as a mean to quantify things, but the actual trends are found and verifiable by many other means that are the result of an increase in temperature.
Pedestrian: don't run, my car is faster anyway. |
Brightspark
Joined: Aug 19, 2007
Posts: 326
From: UK
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"The fact that heat accumulation in the oceans is not increasing does in no way mean that global warming is not increasing. "
i can assure you it does. in fact, the ocean heat content is the best determinant of global warming(or in this case, global cooling). the oceans are much less susceptible to temp swings as seen in (flawed) land based measurements by Hadley and GISS and satellite measurements by UAH and RSS, and the oceans are also the drivers of the climate.
"is accompanied by a global cooling of the upper atmosphere"
you mean the stratosphere
"The fact that the ice area is going down with time implies for you that the ice is not melting?"
It's not going down. you need to put your specs on
"1) It is not because one instrument onboard a satellite shows something that it is true. You also have to compare with many other instruments both satellite born and groundbased, because instruments onboard can have all sorts of failures which obviously cannot be corrected. "
you should bear in mind that satellites and land based measurements are 'adjusted' to be in line with each other. land based measurements are seriously flawed and suffer heavily from UHI bias. you only have to laugh at the positions of many of the land based measuring stations in the US(where most of them are based) here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
the number of stations located next to car parks and sewage stations etc is just ridiculous!
"2) Look at the figures, the number and intensity of cyclones has really come up quite dramatically during the last decades. "
no they haven't. only awareness of them has. you need to factor in population expansion etc (eg greater population and weaker infrastructure of buildings means more greater scale of damage and loss of life)
just curious, but what are your thoughts on the validity of michael mann's hockey stick? i want to know so i can see exactly where you are coming from
[ This Message was edited by: Brightspark on 2009-06-06 13:09 ] |
thomas93
Joined: Sep 28, 2007
Posts: 444
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Brightspark, with all due respect when were you made global warming chief authority. Maybe it is your or other scientists opinions are wrong (Not trying to say we're right)
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goldenface
Joined: Dec 17, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Liverpool City Centre
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michka does sound like he's quite an authority on the subject. You have to respect his opinions - himself being in this particular field of research.
Anyway, my carbon footprint is really low and thats through no effort. Like I said before, I don't think its a gamble worth taking and we should be acting NOW.
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Bonovox
Joined: Apr 13, 2008
Posts: > 500
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What prat said there was a hole in the ozone layer. Seriously if there was a hole we probably would'nt breathing now. If aviation fuel is causing so much damage what do you think is going to happen? Nothing. Do you seriously think its going to stop or be cut it never happens. Yes your thinking if everyone else had my attitude we will all be doomed. Rubbish. Do you think MP's are going to do what they ask YOU to do. No. Because its all complete crap they tell you whatever they want. Ice caps melt and break away into the atlantic all the time its nothing new. Sorry I am not just being blind or ignoring it I just dont believe it. The world changes naturally all the time. Yes we are polluters but I see no difference in our weather around the world than I seen when I was watching the news as a kid in the late 70s or 80s.
[ This Message was edited by: Bonovox on 2009-06-06 14:37 ] |
Consumology
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
Posts: 57
From: Germany
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There is no global warming made by humans... There also are some scientists who confirm that. Blah blah blah.
The same nonsense was said about the origins of the destruction of the ozone layer. Until it was almost too late. And then most of the countries acted up and now the destruction process is under control and will decline over the next decades.
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goldenface
Joined: Dec 17, 2003
Posts: > 500
From: Liverpool City Centre
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Wave, Wind and Nuclear power should be harnessed to the maximum.
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thomas93
Joined: Sep 28, 2007
Posts: 444
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But with Nucleaur I cant remember the specifics but the current uranium we can harness is only 0.01% or something of tottal uranium in the Earth. If we can harness the other 99.9% there is 300milion years worth of power.
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Posted: 2009-06-05 22:03
