Posted by ori
Enthusiasts may go for new devices in the middle of 2010, however most interesting penetration is about to start in 2011, according to my mere predictions.
Posted by whizkidd
Er.. It would help if you could elaborate a bit more..
Posted by F-Lexx
Do you have a crystal ball in there somewhere?
Posted by ori
I have two crystal balls, and lots of mushrooms that give me that special gift to see the future.
Ok, I can’t say I have some insiders information, however I work on product design, and to say more we at my studio are making a high-tech gadget to be publicly released in 2008, so I’m relatively close to the subject in some ways, and mobile phones market has been interesting to me from its beginning, so I can see many trends easily. Many big jumps are not possible in today mobile phones due to battery life and performance limitations, and of course the platform. One more slowdown factor belongs to the network operators, and it is the most sad part. However everything that concerns the device itself should experience the transition in 2011 approximately, speaking of the hardware related issues like performance and the platform (those are quite close one to another) we still are in 2005 solutions, I wouldn’t dare to doubt that performance have increased dramatically however “size / performance / energy efficiency” trio altogether doesn’t give the results satisfactory enough to release a completely “next generation” devices. By 2011 we should have a seamless compatibly between pc standards and things on the mobile phone, this may probably mean the native usage of pc applications on the mobile phones. Most interesting part is the future of PC, this however may take up to ten years or even more, yet I believe that would be the most probable way or PC evolution, basically there is no need to have a calculating performance in every single device yet to have it in one place (your virtual hub) and just transmit the results to the client devices, virtually you can have a PC running any application you want and just manipulate it via the mobile device. SO this is not promised yet we should get closer to it in the next generation, also payment systems and much more integration into real life should occur, this usually takes at least two years to roll out, for example first you have an mp3 codec available yet people still use their CDs, usually only in three – five years this notion becomes widely spread and we can talk about out daily routine embraced, here 2011 is probably the beginning for such movements, we may say that the Iphone delivers an internet on your palm in true PC vision, yet it is not fully true, no flash support and many more limitations prevents us from saying it, much more important is not to have a function to browse the web 100% the way it is seen on PC but to have developers and services aware of that fact, so it all should come together in the new class of devices, so I would say if your current phone works fine you may want to stick to it for the next three years.
Posted by Dicky Snapples
On 2008-06-30 20:06:43, ori wrote:
I have two crystal balls, and lots of mushrooms
you can all stop reading right there, the guys off his tits! just ignore him,he'll probably get distracted by some curtains or something and go away
Posted by ÈL ® ö B ì Ñ
Someone wave a stick.
Posted by Miss UK
lol tbh I don't intend on changing my N95-2 till 2010
it's in redundancey for the time being as im using a low end 5300
Posted by Dicky Snapples
why the hell are you using a 5300,when youve got the awesome N95GB?!?
Posted by Miss UK
theres alot of scallywags around dicky (Work + Training),
it's the only reason I put my N95 in hiding for the time being
the 5300 int that bad atually,
looks cheap though
Posted by Dicky Snapples
fair enough. id probably do the same
Posted by Miss UK
You definatley would if you were me
btw @ all many handsets today are coming out now tha the same features will be around by 2010/11 trying to keep upto date is mad,
especially when the only thing on offer is a 8MP Camera on board,
if you lot have 5MP phones then wait till after and save your money cos I dunno what to expect personally!
larger Jpegs? pfft!
Posted by Brightspark
@ori
using your crystal ball and/or mushrooms, when will sony disassociate themselves from ericsson so that they can try to run SE by themselves? afterall, ericsson was just a vehicle to help sony gain some presence in the mobile world.
Posted by carkitter
On 2008-06-30 20:06:43, ori wrote:
By 2011 we should have a seamless compatibly between pc standards and things on the mobile phone, this may probably mean the native usage of pc applications on the mobile phones. Most interesting part is the future of PC, this however may take up to ten years or even more, yet I believe that would be the most probable way or PC evolution, basically there is no need to have a calculating performance in every single device yet to have it in one place (your virtual hub) and just transmit the results to the client devices, virtually you can have a PC running any application you want and just manipulate it via the mobile device. SO this is not promised yet we should get closer to it in the next generation...
Sounds alot like Microsoft Exchange which Apple have used to create MobileMe for the iPhone and other Wifi devices on your network. It's already here...
Posted by ori
It is MobileMe, and yet it is not, first it is a paid service and it is delivered by one company (Apple), yet the actual system should be open standard and work free of charge, imagine you want an e-mail box and then to check it from your mail application and sometimes from web interface, same should be applied to Mobile Me in terms of freedom of choice, penetration, finally mobile me is thinking inside the box (I however agree that it is a big thing), why? Because you can not install aps you need into mobile me, some people already decided what you need, that is wrong, the whole thing should be natively connected into one environment, probably this may happen thanks to google’s android, first devices emerge this year, first balanced in 2009, than the work on mistakes will be done, and we have a new breed of devices in late 2010 and of course 2011.
Posted by F-Lexx
On 2008-06-30 20:06:43, ori wrote:
I have two crystal balls, and lots of mushrooms that give me that special gift to see the future.
I want some shroomies too!...
Btw, did you take the unified Symbian platform into account? They should be shipping the first devices in 2009.
Posted by Twometre
@Ori you just made a long post and its not easy to follow up.
Can you edit it a bit or write it in point format please for the benefit of those who browse from mobiles
Posted by ori
Now that’s a hard task… however the good thing is that the post itself is completely senseless
I did took Symbian and developments like openmoko into account, and by the way Symbian should go open in 2010, basically what is required the most is a) 100% standardized web browser (you can install any plug-ins and updates all the same way as on PC), awareness of mobile devices accessing web in the same or even in more numbers than usual home users, and speed access from everywhere, altogether will bring new experience. Now we don’t have any of these in full sense, plus we shouldn’t forget the battery life / sometimes performance issues, in 2011, I hope we have e-paper (color, high frame rate), and from performance point it should be possible to run windows (non mobile versions) on normal size mobile phone, however I hope we wouldn’t need it. Moreover the mobile phone should be recognized data storage / creation device so printing and file exchange should become standard and as easy as possible.
Posted by Yakkaimono
On 2008-07-01 12:13:24, F-Lexx wrote:
Btw, did you take the unified Symbian platform into account? They should be shipping the first devices in 2009.
Sadly the first devices with the new os will hit the market in second half (with luck maybe the first) of 2010 and not 2009.
[ This Message was edited by: Yakkaimono on 2008-07-01 11:58 ]
Posted by carkitter
On 2008-07-01 12:56:39, ori wrote:
... basically what is required the most is a) 100% standardized web browser ...
But we don't have 100% standardised web browser on PC platform. As well as IE6/IE7 there's Opera, Firefox, Safari... and more competition has meant better features and simpler browsing. I don't want to go back to the days of one browser for everyone.
On 2008-07-01 12:56:39, ori wrote:
...Moreover the mobile phone should be recognized data storage / creation device so printing and file exchange should become standard and as easy as possible.
Within the constraints of size, features and market positioning. As a keen owner of feature phones exclusively, I don't want to be forced into a Qwerty keyboard or Smartphone Apps that I won't use.
Posted by ori
Standardized browser is not one solution for everything it is many solutions that share same standards completely, we as a design studio when developing web sited do adapt our solution so it will be rendered the same way on every PC available browser, it takes additional time yet it is minor, same should be applicable for mobile devices.
I also may agree that specific devices where phone function will be at highest priority probably will continue to emerge in very low-end market and in luxury.
Posted by himlims_nl
Well mister Nostradamus
i'm realy curious how you can make a statement like that.
in a branche which developments and improvements are even faster compared to IT.
thinks we can expect the following developments;
- DVB-h (true TV on your mobile)
- better intergration with internet services
- phones withouth any keys (maye on/off) more more with touchscreen input
- duo-sim reader will be default
there is not a slight change my Tytn-2/k850 will be usable after 2jr
Posted by Dogmann
@Ori,
I really don't think you have done a good job of explaining yourself properly, there will still be huge advancements made with our Mobile devices over the next couple of years from where they are now. Most if not all of us we embrace them at each stage.
But what you are talking about is what will come after this once we see 4G and speeds that currently we can't even imagine getting on our Home computers is launched. Along with the full implementation of secure Thin client solutions but this is still at least 3 years away from reaching the consumer even the most tech savvy of us won't just wait we like our gadget fixes much sooner than that.
But yes to a degree you are right what will eventually arrive within 5 years will blow everything we have and think we have coming away. The future does indeed look exciting but it's not going to happen any time soon I'm afraid.
Marc
_________________
Nokia E90,8GB SDHC, Fring, Seven, Tom Tom 6
Honoured to have won BEST DEBATER
[ This Message was edited by: Dogmann on 2008-07-02 15:45 ]
Posted by Brightspark
all technological advancements will be made in baby steps. the smaller the baby steps the better because that allows companies to increase their revenue.
there will likely not be any huge leaps forward.
Posted by ori
Exactly, I have had more than 50 phones in my live over last 10 or 15 years (and ofcourse have tried many more), and it is clear that first technology appear mostly as a market tool, later it gets adopted, and if the idea in the first place was good it makes the difference and changes our life, like a Bluetooth, remember those Infrared ports and how great it was to exchange files? I had a Casio Cassiopeia pda, wow it was fun, mostly I played games on it, still it was interesting but was far from implantation to life, I would say Bluetooth as a technology has made it (the thing that Iphone can’t exchange files via it scares me a bit, I try not to think about it), color displays made it, and it is important to understand that soon it will be about the software not hardware, and that is the BIG step and that is what will happen in 2011 approximately, current devices are based on concepts and philosophy of 5+ years old thinking, like how many mega pixels are in the camera or how colorful the display is, it is not bad, to say more it is natural, this path has to be traversed, and it ends. And where it ends a new path begins, the exiting thing is that this happens before our very eyes…
Posted by Residentevil
By 2011 things are gonne be there we have not even heart about it yet.
Posted by carkitter
On 2008-07-03 19:13:34, ori wrote:
I would say Bluetooth as a technology has made it (the thing that Iphone can’t exchange files via it scares me a bit, I try not to think about it), ........... and it is important to understand that soon it will be about the software not hardware, and that is the BIG step and that is what will happen in 2011 approximately,...
Actually, the more I read on Apple websites (and I bought a Mac/Life magazine yesterday) the more I begin to understand the Apple philosophy and while I think BT file transfer is a good thing and use it often, I can understand why it doesn't fit into Apples business plan - 1) You get a USB cable in the box, 2) Using wifi and subscribing to MobileMe is what Apple prefers and 3) would a company who is the largest seller of downloadable music and doesn't include FM radio to protect thier iTunes market then allow you to BT tracks back and forth among your mates? I don't think so. So rightly or wrongly it doesn't suit them to include this feature.
Which brings me to the point that for Apple, its already 'all about the software, not the hardware'. Plenty of companies have copied the iPod hardware but its really not the hardware that makes the iPod successful. Its the iTunes shop, the massive music industry acceptance that Apple have negotiated and the UI (especially in the iPhone) and Apple now continues this theme with the iPhone App store to help the iPhone gain acceptance outside America.
I'd say your right, but its here now, you needn't wait til 2011.